Recently, I visited a small mountain village in rural Guangxi province, in southern China. The villagers, while surrounded by natural beauty, are plagued with poverty; about one in three households earns under 2,300 RMB ($347) per year. This is enough money to buy food and some clothing, but not enough to purchase assets like a bicycle or television, to start a business, or to live a remotely comfortable life. These individuals rely mainly on farming for income, and sleep in wooden homes with sparse furniture and virtually no material goods.
This is poverty. Chinese leaders Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have declared war on poverty. So far, its track record has been stellar. China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty since 1978. The nation is aiming to eliminate poverty by 2020, according to the latest five-year plan, which targets 70 million remaining poor. This is greater than the population of the UK and certainly a challenge as most low-hanging fruit, such as providing factory jobs to rural residents, has already been picked. Is it really possible, then, for China to wipe out poverty by 2020?
China’s working hard to meet this goal. President Xi Jinping has set specific goals to reach the target: lifting 10 million people out of poverty per year between 2016 and 2020, and providing a social safety net for the remaining 20 million poor who are unable to work. In order to accomplish this, China has taken up the challenge by attacking poverty on several fronts: by promoting tourism in poor but scenic areas, by helping poor households gain access to microcredit loans, and by pairing work units and other institutions with poor villages to assist residents. The China Foundation for Poverty Alleviation, a non-profit organization, has played a critical role in all of these areas, and the Agricultural Development
Some rural residents will be relocated either short distances (within or to another nearby village) or long distances (to cities or towns) where necessary, which aims to provide the poor with better access to infrastructure and services. Central and provincial departments (such as the State Council Leading Group of Poverty Alleviation and Development and provincial poverty alleviation offices) also play key roles in reducing poverty.
Still, there are notable concerns about poverty reduction programs, too many to enumerate in this article, but here we list three. First, di bao, a social assistance program, has provided some recipients with small payments, but has often failed to identify the truly needy. This has remained a problem in both urban and rural areas, as the number of di bao beneficiaries is low relative to the number of poor. Local governments are responsible for administering the program, and a variety of program thresholds exist.
Second, poverty alleviation through intensifying agriculture has led to environmental degradation, which renders agricultural production less viable in the future. Nitrogen from fertilizers has led to soil acidification; fertilizers and effluent from dairy farm into water has resulted in eutrophication and lower fish yields; and soil erosion has reduced river channel volume and increased the incidence of flooding. This has, ironically, made farming conditions even more challenging.
Third, resettlement has at times led to loss of agricultural income and increased costs of living. Fan, Li, and Li (2015) examine a resettlement that took place among pastoralists in Inner Mongolia, finding that while income increased after the move to Alxa Left Banner, costs due to water shortages increased and herder cultural traditions were weakened or lost. Lo, Xue and Wang (2016), examining resettlement sites in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, find that villagers are often misinformed about resettlement details, and that long-distance settlers often have higher income but also higher costs and lack of sufficient employment. Similar issues have been raised in studies of resettlement in other regions. The upshot is that resettlement brings with it its own set of problems, and may not always be the optimal solution to poverty.
I believe that China can eliminate its poverty by 2020, at least on paper, but that this may lead to other problems. Certainly, both the leadership and local institutions are highly dedicated to throwing off the yoke of poverty. Poverty reduction programs are intense and officials try hard to identify the right recipients and methods for these programs.
However, China remains an extremely diverse nation, with diverse types of poverty. While some individuals have access to sufficient water for living and farming, others do not. Some poor rural residents live in isolated regions, while poor urban residents, though not geographically isolated, may face social or economic isolation. Some individuals receive benefits from governmental or non-governmental institutions, while others miss out. The task of eliminating poverty at this point is excruciatingly difficult.
In the end, it is likely that some of the poor will be truly better off all around, while others will not be. With only four years to go, China’s war on poverty is working relentlessly to triumph. We can’t wait to see the outcome.
