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NRL TV ratings down after three rounds but ahead of forecast

The NRL are nowhere near hitting the panic button despite a 5.3 per cent drop in total television ratings through the first three rounds of the 2019 season.

Having last year trumped the AFL in the fight for viewership for the first time since 2010, the NRL faced a litmus test this season.

NRL chief commercial officer Andrew Abdo isn't worried about the TV ratings so far this season. Janie Barrett

Win the fight for eyeballs for another year and the 2018 results could be pointed to as far more than an anomaly.

But while AFL viewership has remained relatively stagnant through its first two rounds – after falling about 12 per cent last year – NRL ratings have dropped.

Figures provided to the Herald by the NRL show ratings have fallen 6.3 per cent on Nine's free to air coverage and 4.3 per cent on Foxtel when compared to figures after three rounds last year.

A total of 12.3 million viewers for the opening three rounds last year has fallen to 11.7 million this season.

On raw figures, the drop certainly represents some cause for concern for the powerbrokers at League Central.

But NRL chief commercial officer Andrew Abdo is not raising the alarm, preaching patience in what is a marathon, not a sprint.

"TV ratings are driven by many variables which makes year-on-year comparisons difficult," Abdo said. "It’s important to remember it’s only round three. There are a number of important rounds for us in coming weeks and still a long way to go in the season."

There is also more to the figures than meets the eye, given the broad change in the way Australians now watch television and, by extension, sport.

Streaming via Kayo, Nine Now and Telstra Live Pass is not included in the ratings, leaving some question mark as to the accuracy of the figures.

"We know audiences are also consuming on Kayo Sports, Nine Now and the NRL Telstra Live Pass," Abdo said. "We have seen an increase in subscriptions for the Live Pass, while there have been some strong ratings particularly on Channel Nine for their post-match analysis on Thursday and Friday nights."

Two measures put the NRL's ratings in front.

The first of those is the share of simulcast in Sydney and Brisbane when the competition's biggest matches typically square off against AFL blockbusters – Thursday night, Friday night and Sunday afternoon. The ratings are up 1.8 per cent in that space.

Jahrome Hughes crosses in the season-opener when the Storm and Broncos were watched by record regular season numbers. AAP

The second positive number comes in the form of forecast figures. The governing body is handed a report before the season starts which predicts what sort of audience can be expected for any given round, largely based on the quality of matches.

The NRL has deliberately spread the blockbuster clashes evenly throughout the season, rather than putting a large chunk of them together in the opening rounds in the fight for early season ratings.

With that in mind, the audience is up 2.6 per cent on what was forecast.

"Based on the schedule and our original forecasts we are tracking relatively well in terms of overall ratings across free-to-air and subscription television," Abdo said. "Certainly the positive results in terms of the share of audience in key metropolitan markets is a good sign."

The next two months will be the real litmus test on the viewership front leading into Origin, which perennially features in the top 10 broadcasts of the year nationwide.

Matches during ANZAC round, Easter weekend and the shiny new Magic Round concept are all expected to draw significant ratings.

Sam Phillips is a sports reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald.

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