East Belfast Sectoral Study - Northern Ireland Housing Executive

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1.0 Introduction 3 

2.0 Strategic Context 5 

3.0 Demographic/Socio Economic Context 13 

4.0 Housing Context 17 

5.0 Private Sector Market Perspective 26 

6.0 Key Housing Issues 29 

2

1.0 Introduction 

1.1 Aims and Purpose of Study 

The Greater East Belfast Sectoral Study (2007) is the first repeat housing study 

undertaken by the Housing Executive in Belfast. The previous Greater East Belfast 

Sectoral Study was launched in 1997. It was the first of the sectoral studies/strategies 

introduced by the Housing Executive under its 1996 Belfast City Housing Strategy, the 

aim of which was to deliver intervention at a more local level by providing sub-city 

market analyses. Further studies have been completed for North, West, Greater Shankill 

and South Belfast and strategies to deal with the relevant housing issues in each sector 

are underway. 

This study will be used as a framework for consultation and the promotion of debate 

with interested parties which will lead to the formation of an agreed housing strategy for 

Greater East Belfast. 

The approach is to examine the housing market and its relationship with the wider 

strategic planning, physical, social and demographic conditions. 

The study covers an area wider than the Belfast City Council boundary reflecting a 

wider East Belfast housing market. It includes core East Belfast (inner, middle and 

outer) essentially postcode areas BT4, BT5 and BT6 and that part of urban Castlereagh 

which included parts of postal codes BT5 and BT6 and BT16 (Dundonald). See Map 1. 

The following Local Government electoral wards have been used for demographic 

analysis: 

Belfast City Council Area 

• Ballyhackamore 

• Ballymacarrett 

• Belmont 

• Bloomfield 

• Cherryvalley 

• Island 

• Knock 

• Orangefield 

• Ravenhill 

• Stormont 

• Sydenham 

• The Mount 

• Woodstock 

Castlereagh Council Area 

Ballyhanwood 

Carrowreagh 

Cregagh 

Downshire 

Dundonald 

Enler 

Gilnahirk 

Grahams Bridge 

Lisnasharragh 

Lower Braniel 

Tullycarnet 

Upper Braniel 

Although local government ward boundaries changed slightly in 1992, intercensal 

comparison (1991-2001) is still appropriate. 

3

2.0 Strategic Context 

2.1 Background 

In 2003 the Housing Executive commissioned an independent evaluation of its Urban 

Renewal Programme and used East Belfast as the case study. The resultant report, by 

Buchanans, fully endorsed the Housing Executive’s approach and indicated that it had 

resulted in improved housing conditions and diversity of tenure, and had been the 

catalyst for increased investor confidence and activity by private housing developers. 

The key findings of the evaluation were as follows: 

• The renewal programme has had a positive impact on the quality of life of the 

communities within inner East Belfast. 

• The drive to tackle poor housing conditions has resulted in improvements in 

the level of housing unfitness and amenities, a reduction in vacancies, and 

better designed and higher quality stock in new developments in both public 

and private sectors. 

• The Housing Executive has encouraged diversification of tenure across the area 

through its house sales scheme, the release of land in urban renewal areas for 

private housing and the transfer of its newbuild programme to housing 

associations. 

• The Housing Executive has had a strong commitment to developing capacity 

and promoting tenant involvement throughout its core operational areas. 

Given these findings and the near completion of the urban renewal programme in inner 

East Belfast, it is considered an appropriate time to re examine the housing market and 

conditions in the greater East Belfast area. 

2.2 Planning Context 

The Regional Development Strategy, “Shaping our Future”, established the planning 

framework for Northern Ireland up to 2025. It aims to create a thriving metropolitan 

area focused on Belfast by maintaining its current level of population and promoting 

housing within existing urban areas. 

The draft Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan (BMAP) sets out detailed land use proposals 

for the Greater Belfast Area. The plan envisages the provision of 77,500 new dwellings 

within the Belfast Urban Area with a target set of developing at least 60% of new 

development within the urban footprint. The Public Inquiry into BMAP is due to 

commence in April 2007 and is expected to last 18 months. Furthermore under the 

Review of Public Administration, production and implementation of Area plans will 

devolve to the new “Super Councils”. In the interim period planning guidance is 

delivered in the form of Planning Policy Statements. Two of these have particular 

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elevance to housing in Greater East Belfast: PPS12 Housing in Settlements and PPS8 

Open Space, Sport and Outdoor Recreation. 

PPS12- Housing and Settlements 

The purpose of PPS12 is to meet the range of regional housing needs in relation to the 

supply of new housing by: 

• Promoting a plan which monitors and manages the delivery of housing land 

• Encouraging the development of balanced local communities 

• Promoting housing within urban areas and the re-use of previously developed 

land 

• Promoting higher density urban housing 

• Promoting a mixed use approach to new residential developments 

• Protecting local character of established residential areas 

• Encouraging integration of residential development with public transport 

An integral part of PPS12 is an assessment of local housing needs. These assessments 

are produced by the Housing Executive using analysis of demographic trends, housing 

supply and social and affordable housing need. In relation to the study area, 

assessments have been produced for Inner East Belfast, Short Strand, Outer East Belfast 

and Urban Castlereagh. The assessments detail the likely future housing requirements 

for different types and sizes of housing across all tenures in these areas. 

An important element of PPS12 is HS2. In locations where a demonstrable housing 

need has been identified by the Housing Executive, planning permission for housing 

proposals will only be granted where provision is made for a suitable mix of housing 

types and tenures to meet the range of market and social housing needs identified. The 

proportion of land or units to be set aside for social housing will be determined by the 

development control process. HS2 is seen as a key development in addressing the 

ongoing need for social housing. The Housing Executive and the Planning Service are 

currently working on the implementation of the policy at ten sites throughout Northern 

Ireland. 

PPS8- Open Space, Sport and Recreation 

PPS8 indicates that Planning Service will not permit developments that would result in 

the loss of open space. This is particularly relevant as the Housing Executive has a 

number of estates which contain large areas of open space. In some instances this open 

space is not dedicated to any particular purpose and has become a focus for anti social 

behaviour. The Housing Executive realises that much of this land has development 

potential and will approach Planning Service to set aside PPS8 provisions if it is 

appropriate to do so. The site of the former Sheltered housing complex at Glenluce in 

Knocknagoney, which has been zoned as Open Space within the draft BMAP, is an 

example of this approach. 

An urban capacity study was carried out as part of the BMAP process to determine the 

potential housing output from sites within the urban area. Very few development sites 

were identified in Greater East Belfast; this has major implications for the area as the 

lack of sites will constrain the supply of housing throughout the area, further 

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exacerbating land and property prices. This is dealt with in more detail in Sections 4 and 

5. 

2.3 Regeneration Context 

There are a number of historical and current regeneration strategies, programmes and 

initiatives which impact on East Belfast. 

Urban Renewal Programme 

The Housing Executive’s Urban Renewal Programme has transformed housing 

conditions in many parts of East Belfast’s inner and middle city. 

The 1982 Belfast Housing Renewal Strategy produced a swathe of new social housing 

around the inner city at Short Strand and the lower reaches of the Newtownards, 

Albertbridge, Beersbridge, Castlereagh, Woodstock and Ravenhill Roads.(See Map 2) 

The 1982 Strategy also continued the considerable programme of investment in 

rehabilitation and private sector grants activity in inner and middle East Belfast, mostly 

centred on Housing Action Areas (HAAs) and Private Investment Priority Areas 

(PIPAs). 

The 1996 Belfast City Housing Strategy updated the 1982 Strategy and marked a 

change in emphasis away from direct housing provision to an enabling and facilitatory 

role where housing was promoted as part of wider regeneration, and where the Housing 

Executive would work to provide a range of housing types and tenures in partnership 

with Housing Associations and private developers. It also set out the framework for the 

1997 Greater East Belfast Study/Strategy. 

Since then the main features of the Housing Executive’s regeneration-related housing 

activities in East Belfast have been: 

• Revisiting some of the early less successful HAAs and carrying out urban 

renewal programmes in areas such as Dee St/Chadolly Street, Pansy/Gawn, 

Cherryville, Lord Street, Spring/Halcombe and Connswater. 

• Implementing major estate strategies in Lower Newtownards Road estate, 

Tullycarnet and Ballybeen. These have all included a range of measures 

including housing modernisation works, environmental improvements, 

demolition of obsolete(largely non traditional) stock, new infill social housing 

and land release for private sector housing. 

• Working in multi- agency partnerships with other statutory agencies and local 

communities to address issues associated with community development and 

strategic regeneration initiatives. 

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Urban Regeneration and Neighbourhood Renewal 

The Department for Social Development, through its Belfast Regeneration Office, is 

responsible for driving urban regeneration in greater Belfast. In the past twenty years a 

number of initiatives and instruments such as Making Belfast Work, Comprehensive 

Development Schemes, Environmental Improvement and Urban Development Grant 

were used to promote regeneration throughout the city. 

In addition the Department’s Laganside Initiative has impacted on East Belfast, 

particularly in relation to the provision of residential apartment complexes. 

The Department has now adopted Neighbourhood Renewal as the basis of much of its 

urban regeneration activity, and its strategy “People and Place” was launched in 2003 

and aims to regenerate and improve the quality of life in those communities and 

neighbourhoods experiencing the worst deprivation and disadvantage. 

The Strategy has four interlinking strategic objectives: 

• Community Renewal – develop confident communities that are able and 

committed to improving the quality of life in their areas. 

• Economic Renewal – develop economic activity in the most deprived 

neighbourhoods and connect them to the wider urban economy. 

• Social Renewal – improve social conditions for the people who live in the most 

deprived neighbourhoods through better co-ordinated public services and the 

creation of safer environments 

• Physical Renewal – help create attractive , safe, sustainable environments in the 

most deprived neighbourhoods 

Thirty six Neighbourhood Renewal Areas (NRAs) have been identified across Northern 

Ireland. Regeneration in the NRAs will be driven by Neighbourhood Partnerships (NPs) 

– representative of local community, political, public, private, voluntary interests – 

through 7-10 year visions and action plans. 

The Department has designated two NRAs in East Belfast: 

• Inner East Belfast – Ballymacarrett, Short Strand, Albertbridge Road, The 

Mount, and the lower Beersbridge, Woodstock and Ravenhill Roads 

• Tullycarnet – Tullycarnet , Vionville 

There is an obvious affinity between the Department’s aims and the work of the 

Housing Executive through its urban renewal and estate strategy programmes. Housing 

is therefore seen as making a vital contribution to the implementation of the 

Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy. 

The Department is also responsible for the implementation, through the Belfast Local 

Strategy Partnership, of the Peace 2 Programme’s Measure 2.11, Area Based 

Regeneration , which aims to tackle area decline caused by civil unrest. The Measure 

has been targeted at twelve locations across Northern Ireland, one of which is the 

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interface around Short Strand/Ballymacarrett. Castlereagh has its own Local Strategy 

Partnership which has been developing an integrated local strategy for the Borough. 

Renewing Communities Initiative 

In April 2006 the government launched “Renewing Communities”, a cross departmental 

action plan largely designed to address long standing problems within Protestant 

Working Class Communities. It brings together a range of new and existing 

programmes and initiatives relating to support for activities in education, youth 

intervention, employment, culture, sports, community infrastructure etc. Of particular 

note for housing- related regeneration are the following which will apply throughout 

Northern Ireland: 

• Development of a range of affordable housing options to provide opportunities 

for owner occupiers to remain in urban renewal areas following redevelopment. 

• Additional Urban Development Grant funding being made available to stimulate 

private housing in inner/middle city areas. 

• Stimulating the release of public sector land to deliver social and affordable 

housing in areas of housing stress. 

Belfast City Council 

Belfast City Council has taken the lead in creating a collaborative Arterial Routes 

Partnership. The partnership consists of the Belfast Area Partnership Boards, Belfast 

Regeneration Office, City Council and the Housing Executive. It is recognised that the 

arterial routes are the key gateways for the social and economic functioning of the city. 

This initiative seeks to enhance the vitality of these routes by developing and 

implementing integrated regeneration plans for designated nodes within the arterial 

routes. Two of the routes targeted for action are in East Belfast: 

• Lower Newtownards Road is in Phase 1 

• Albertbridge Road is in Phase 2 

A series of environmental enhancements are planned on these routes including tree 

planting, public art and anti litter campaigns. Local community regeneration bodies will 

take the lead in designing and implementing these projects. 

In addition, Belfast City Council produced a Masterplan for the city to stimulate debate 

on the challenges facing it in the period up to 2020. The plan, which has no formal 

status, will be promoted and implemented through a “To Do” list of actions that can be 

undertaken by the Council or Central Government agencies. The creation of an enlarged 

Belfast Council under the Review of Public Administration may impact on the delivery 

of such initiatives. 

It should be noted that under the Review of Public Administration, it is proposed that 

the Housing Executive’s role in Urban Renewal will transfer to the new Councils. 

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Community Infrastructure and Participation 

There is extensive community infrastructure throughout the study area. The Housing 

Executive participates fully in community development issues throughout the sector and 

is represented on both the East Belfast and the two Neighbourhood Renewal 

Partnerships. These partnerships have produced a number of strategies dealing with key 

themes such as Health, Education, Employment and Regeneration. 

The Housing Executive has established a Housing Community Network in both its 

Belfast District 2 and Castlereagh offices which act as the focus for local consultation 

on its policies, programmes and services. The Housing Executive also participates in 

and offers practical support to a number of initiatives, for example, Ballybeen 

Improvement Group, the Hanwood social economy project and the Inner East Forum. 

East Belfast Partnership commissioned an Urban Regeneration Framework for the Inner 

East Neighbourhood Renewal area. This has enabled the Neighbourhood Partnership to 

develop an action plan. EBP has also commissioned a Strategic Regeneration 

Framework for Greater East Belfast and work will be completed in early 2008. 

Housing Policy and Finance 

Fundamental reform of the domestic rating system is being introduced in April 2007. 

The capital value of the property is now the sole determining factor on the liability of 

individual householders. Most households in the study area will face higher bills as a 

result of the new system. Furthermore the introduction of water charges, based on the 

new rating system will add to the financial burden of many households, particularly 

those who occupy houses in areas of high prices but who are on low incomes. 

A Review of Affordable Housing, undertaken by the former Head of the Northern 

Ireland Civil Service, Sir John Semple, was launched by the Department for Social 

Development in the autumn of 2006. An interim report was produced in December and 

a final report published in April 2007. The review was undertaken in light of the recent 

unprecedented rise in house prices which have all but ruled first time buyers out of 

many markets and a rapid rise in Social Housing Waiting Lists. The final report 

contains a series of recommendations in relation to planning, publicly owned land and 

housing finance which may improve the current situation. It is interesting to note that 

one of the central recommendations in the interim report was that under the Review of 

Public Administration (RPA), housing, planning and regeneration should all be under 

the control of a single Department. The impact of the rapid growth in house prices is 

discussed in detail in Sections 4 and 5. 

Transport 

The Department for Regional Development has produced the Belfast Metropolitan 

Transport Plan (BMPT) which sets out transport proposals for the Belfast Metropolitan 

for the period to 2015. An essential element of the Transport Plan is an efficient, safe, 

and environmentally acceptable and sustainable transport system. The Plan outlines 

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proposals to create a network of Quality Bus Corridors where a fleet of modern 

accessible buses will provide more frequent services on existing routes and also on new 

routes which will provide access to new development nodes. 

In addition the Department recently commissioned an economic feasibility study on 

proposals for a “rapid transit” system for Belfast. Tram type coaches using parts of the 

abandoned Belfast and Co Down railway track bed could also form part of the proposed 

“EWAY” scheme, which will run between Dundonald and Belfast city centre. A similar 

service which would link the Titanic Quarter development, George Best City Airport 

and the new retail development in the Belfast Harbour Estate is also being assessed. 

Shared Future 

Government’s ‘A Shared Future’, policy and strategy framework for good relations in 

Northern Ireland was published in March 2005. This policy required the Housing 

Executive to bring forward shared future housing schemes. To date the Housing 

Executive has successfully launched the first shared future housing scheme, in 

partnership with Ulidia Housing Association, at Carron Crescent, Enniskillen with a 

second pilot approved in Loughbrickland programmed for 2007/08. 

The overriding principle is that shared housing should be promoted in areas where it is 

practicable, desirable and safe. All allocations are carried out in accordance with the 

rules governing the Common Selection Scheme provide no one community background 

exceeding 70% of the total number of households. The majority of residents sign up to 

the principles of a ‘Voluntary Neighbourhood Charter’ which demonstrates 

‘intentionality’ of residents to adhere to the ethos of shared community living. This 

model provides the outline to manage, support, sustain and monitor such schemes which 

also includes the delivery of a good relations programme. 

The Housing Executive is committed to supporting people who wish to live in mixed 

religion neighbourhoods. It now seeks ways to engage with communities in East Belfast 

to discuss the delivery of shared future housing schemes. 

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3.0 Demographic/Socio Economic Context 

3.1 Population 

The population of the Sectoral Study area fell slightly between 1991 and 2001 from 

101,366 in 1991 to 100,534 in 2001, a decrease of 1%. This small decrease was in line 

with the other sectors of the city, with the exception of South Belfast which increased 

by 12% in the same period. The population of the Belfast City Council portion of the 

study area fell by 2.2% while the Castlereagh portion had an increase of 3% in the 

1991-2001 period. The total population of Northern Ireland rose by 6.8%. 

1991 2001 1991-2001 

Variance 

East Belfast City 

Council Area 70081 68528 -1553 (2.2%) 

Castlereagh 

Council Area 31285 32006 + 721 (3%) 

Total Study Area 101,366 100,534 -832 (1%) 

Table 1 Study Area Population 1991-2001 Census 

The population of individual wards has remained fairly constant since 1991, with a few 

notable exceptions: 

• The population of Bloomfield Ward rose by almost 24%, while The Mount lost 

almost 20% of its population in the period 

• Within Castlereagh, Carrowreagh and Grahams Bridge wards had increases of 

73% and 37% respectively largely accounted for by new private sector 

housebuilding. The Upper Braniel ward lost 23% of its population. 

The structure of the East Belfast population largely reflects the city/regional trends as 

illustrated in the table below. 

Age Group East Belfast All Belfast Castlereagh 

0-17 15357 (22.5%) 68563 (25%) 7329 (23%) 

18-44 25778 (37.5%) 111269 (40%) 11545 (36%) 

45-59 11736 (17%) 43041 (15%) 5592 (17%) 

60+ 15557 (23%) 54518 (20%) 7540 (24%) 

Total 68528 277391 32006 

Table 2 Population Age Structure (2001 Census) 

There is a slightly higher proportion of elderly residents (60+) in East Belfast than the 

city as a whole. The number of elderly increased in Cherryvalley ward in the 1991-2001 

period but reduced significantly in the Woodstock, Island and The Mount wards. A 

report by Healthy Cities Belfast in April 2006 shows that Cherryvalley, Stormont, 

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Knock and Orangefield Wards have the highest proportion of population aged 60+ in 

Belfast. 

The religious make up of the study area is predominantly Protestant with a significant 

Catholic community located in the Short Strand area of Inner East Belfast. The area has 

been relatively free of sectarian tension that has blighted other parts of Belfast. This is 

reflected in higher than average prices for all types of property 

3.2 Household Analysis 

The number of households in the study area increased from 41,060 in 1991 to 44,275 in 

2001, an overall rate of increase of 8 %, considerably lower than the regional rise of 

over 18% over the same period. 

1991 2001 Variation 

Castlereagh 

Study area 12346 13550 +9.8 % 

East Belfast 

Study Area 28714 30725 +7% 

Total Study 

Area 41060 44275 +7.6 % 

N.I. Total 530700 626700 +18 % 

Table 3 

Study Area Households (1991-2001 Census) 

The population and household analysis illustrates the trend toward smaller household 

size which has continued since the 1971 Census. The average household size in the 

study area is now 2.23 down from 2.44 in 1991. Other trends which had become 

apparent in previous decades continued, often, as in the case of single person 

households, at an accelerated rate. The proportion of single person households in the 

study area increased from 31% in 1991 to 36% in 2001. In Northern Ireland this 

proportion rose from 22.8% in 1991 to 27.3% in 2001. 

Further trends notable within the census data are the substantial fall in the proportion of 

households with dependent children, down from 41.5% in 1991 to 36.5% in 2001. Both 

birth and death rates per 1000 of the population fell during the period, confirming the 

pattern that more people are living longer. These trends have been replicated in the 

Study area and have an obvious impact on housing markets. For housing the key 

implications are: 

• The rising demand for property as household size continues to decrease has 

an impact on supply, prices and density. The last 2 years (Since 2005) has seen 

this at its most acute. 

• The declining proportion of children which may impact on the number of 

bedrooms in dwellings and hence density. 

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• The rise in the number and proportion of elderly, and in particular the 75+ age 

group (increased by 22% since 1991) has important implications on the design 

of dwellings and also on the support funding and care packages required to 

enable these people to live in the community. The number of people aged 75 + 

is projected to increase by a further 42% by 2017. 

• There will be ongoing demand for adaptations for people with disabilities. 

• Future development at Titanic Quarter, Scirocco Works and Millmount has the 

potential to significantly increase the number of households in the study area in 

the near future. 

3.3 Ethnic Minorities 

The 2001 Census was the first to determine the ethnic composition of the population. 

Previous estimates were based on academic studies or figures produced by organisations 

representing ethnic minority groups. 

The 2001 Census determined that there were over 14,000 people from ethnic minority 

backgrounds in Northern Ireland. It has been argued that these census figures may not 

be accurate as it is thought that language and literacy difficulties, allied to suspicion and 

mistrust of official information gathering may have led to non completion of forms. It is 

therefore probable that the true ethnic minority population was higher in 2001. 

It is widely accepted that immigration to Northern Ireland has increased dramatically in 

the past 5 years and particularly since the accession to the European Union of the 

former communist block. 

South Belfast has been the most popular destination for new immigrants but evidence is 

emerging that greater East Belfast is becoming an increasingly important market for this 

group. The construction and health sectors employ significant numbers of migrant 

workers. The imminent development in Titanic Quarter may act as a catalyst for further 

immigration. Migrant workers tend to live in the private rented sector and there is 

evidence that this is expanding in parts of East Belfast, notably Cregagh, 

Ballyhackamore, Bloomfield, Ravenhill, Woodstock and The Mount. 

The Housing Executive has begun to collect basic information on the ethnic origin of 

applicants for the Common Selection Scheme for allocating social housing. Rules on 

eligibility to apply for social housing are quite complex and depend upon the country of 

origin and economic status of the individual. To date the actual number making 

application is quite low, underscoring the prevailing view that the ethnic minority 

population is predominantly established in the private sector. 

3.4 Socio-Economic Profile 

The Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (NIMDM) 2005 identifies small 

area concentrations of multiple deprivation. The 7 domains measuring deprivation are: 

income; employment; health; education; skills and training; proximity to services; living 

15

environment and crime and crime and disorder. This updated the previous Noble 

multiple deprivation measures published in 2001. 

There are 890 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Northern Ireland. This is a new 

classification which examines areas with populations of around 2,000 people and is 

aligned, where possible to local council wards. 

Deprivation is measured by using a scoring system where rank 1 is the most deprived, 

to rank 890 which is the least deprived. Overall Belfast is ranked the second most 

deprived council area in Northern Ireland, while Castlereagh is ranked the second least 

deprived. In the study area, the inner city wards Ballymacarrett, Island, The Mount and 

Woodstock are the most deprived while in Castlereagh, Tullycarnet is the most 

deprived. The most deprived areas are included in the two Neighbourhood Renewal 

Areas within the study area. 

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4.0 Housing Context 

4.1 Housing Stock 

Data from the 2001 Census indicates that the Study area had a housing stock of 44,260 

dwellings, an increase of 7.6% since 1991. The rate of increase is broadly similar to that 

experienced in both Belfast and Northern Ireland in the same period. Table 4 illustrates 

the dwelling types which comprise the housing stock. 

Detached 

houses & 

bungalows 

Semi-Det 

houses & 

bungalows 

Terraced 

houses & 

bungalows 

Purpose 

built flats& 

apartments 


Study area 4161 9586 13212 3257 509 

Castlereagh 

Study area 2532 5247 3775 1934 47 


area 6693 (15%) 14833 

(34%) 

Table 4 : Dwelling Types (2001 Census) 

16987 

(38%) 

5191 

(12%) 

Converted 

or shared 

houses 

556 

(1%) 

There are a number of interesting observations which emerge from this analysis, notably 

: 

• Terrace property is the dominant form in the inner city wards of Ballymacarrett, 

Bloomfield, Island, Sydenham, The Mount and Woodstock. 

• Almost 50% of the detached property in the Belfast portion of the area is in the 

Stormont and Cherryvalley wards. 

• The proportion of apartments will continue to increase as competition for sites 

becomes more acute, thus increasing the pressure for higher densities. There are 

criticisms that this has led to “Town Cramming”. Planning Service refutes this 

and emphasises the new designation within BMAP, of Areas of Townscape 

Character, which are designed to preserve good examples of traditional 

buildings throughout the metropolitan area. 

• The number of converted or shared properties will also continue to increase as 

the private rented sector expands in light of affordability issues, particularly 

among potential first time buyers and incoming migrant workers. 

• Semi detached is the predominant building form in the Castlereagh portion of 

the study area, reflecting much of the areas’ suburban character. 

Each District Council Area has a number of private sector dwellings that are not 

occupied and are deemed empty by the Rate Collection Agency (RCA). In March 2006 

the RCA determined that there were 2250 empty private sector dwellings in the study 

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area, 1653 in the Belfast City portion and 597 in Castlereagh, representing 5.5% and 

2.2% of the respective areas’ housing stock. 

4.2 Housing Conditions 

The Housing Executive’s Urban Renewal Programme has transformed housing 

conditions in many parts of East Belfast, particularly inner East since its adoption in 

1982. 

This strategy introduced a two pronged approach to improving housing conditions, 

redevelopment and rehabilitation. This produced a swathe of new social housing in the 

Woodstock, Newtownards, Albertbridge and Beersbridge Roads. Some of the early 

rehabilitation schemes were less successful and have latterly been subject to Urban 

Renewal. Private sector housing has been introduced into some of these areas, reflecting 

its popularity and the confidence and willingness of households to invest in East 


Outside the inner city, housing renewal was primarily driven by private sector grants 

availability and small new build infill schemes. In the last 5 years over £10 million of 

grant expenditure has been directed at the study area. The level of unfitness in the 

Belfast Metropolitan Area, as measured in the 2004 Interim House Condition Survey, 

was 2.8%. The level of unfitness has continued to fall as the Housing Executive targets 

its resources on dwellings and individuals in greatest need. 

The Housing Executive has continued to invest in its own stock with rolling 

programmes of improvement and maintenance, which included the installation of 

central heating to almost every Housing Executive home. The Housing Executive has 

also led the way in converting its stock to natural gas, which is the main heat source of 

60% of its dwellings in Belfast. 

The Housing (NI) Order 2003 changed the Housing Executive’s Grant Scheme from an 

essentially mandatory one to one that is mainly discretionary. The key features of the 

main types of grant applicable in East Belfast are: 

• Renovation Grant which is aimed at reducing unfitness but is now discretionary. 

Landlord contributions are now based on a percentage of eligible costs rather 

than on the level of rental income. 

• Disabled Facilities Grant which is available on the recommendation of an 

Occupational Therapist, reflecting the Housing Executive’s continuing emphasis 

on providing support to people with disabilities. 

• Repair Grants are available to landlords following the service of a Certificate of 

Disrepair or Public Health Notices. 

• Housing in Multiple Occupation Grant which is available for properties capable 

of housing ten or more people. 

It should be noted that under the Review of Public Administration (RPA) the Housing 

Executive’s Grants function will be transferred to the new Councils. 

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4.3 Housing Tenure 

The owner occupied sector is the dominant tenure in the Study area as illustrated in the 

table below: 


City Council 

Area 

Owner 

Occupied 

Social Rented 

* 

Private 

Rented 

Other rented 

** 

19731 (64%) 7428 (24%) 3023 (10%) 538 (2%) 

Castlereagh 

Council Area 9541 (70%) 3550 (26%) 278 (2%) 181 (2%) 


Area 29272 (66%) 10978 (25%) 3301 (7%) 719 (2%) 

Table 5 Household Tenure (2001 Census) 

* Includes Housing Executive and Housing Associations 

** Includes renting from an employer, relative or friend 

Some interesting facts emerge from this analysis, most notably: 

• Owner occupation is higher than the Belfast average of 57%. The Northern 

Ireland average in 2001 was 69%. 

• Private rental is increasing rapidly across all areas but particularly in urban 

areas. The current rapid growth in house prices and investor activity will further 

increase the sector. In parts of South Belfast, private rental is now the dominant 

tenure and there is evidence that the growth is spreading outward. 

• The social housing stock has declined significantly since 2001 as the continued 

popularity of the House Sales scheme has resulted in high levels of sales 

throughout the study area. Furthermore redundant and unpopular housing stock 

has been removed in areas such as the Lower Newtownards Road, Connswater 

and Tullycarnet. 

4.4 Social Housing 

The total social housing stock in the East Belfast Sectoral Study area is currently 

approximately 8,000 units, 6500 Housing Executive and 1500 Housing Association. 

Approximately 60% of the Housing Executive dwellings are houses, the remainder 

bungalows, flats and maisonettes. Large numbers of houses have been sold under the 

Right to Buy provisions. Over half of the Housing Association dwellings are purpose 

built flats. This reflects the fact that many Housing Associations initially concentrated 

on the provision of sheltered accommodation for older people and other specific needs 

groups. 

A Common Selection Scheme for all social housing was introduced in 2000. The 

number of applicants on the Waiting List is illustrated in the graph below. Following a 

period of stability in the years to 2005, waiting lists have increased rapidly in the past 2 

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years. The current affordability crisis is having an adverse effect on demand for social 

housing which allied to lack of development sites is producing an acute shortage of 

social housing in some areas. 

Within the social sector, the balance between Housing Executive and Housing 

Association stock has continued to change. The number and proportion owned and 

managed by Housing Associations is continuing to grow, but the stock added to the 

social sector by the annual social housing programme continues to be substantially 

outweighed by the reduction in social housing stock as a result of sales and demolitions. 

Chart 1 Social Housing Waiting Lists (Housing Stress) 2003-2007 

The household composition of the Waiting List is illustrated in Chart 1. Single 

applicants form the largest proportion of the Waiting list with 45% of the total. Elderly 

applicants and families comprise 26% and 24% respectively of the Waiting List. 

The majority of single applicants are in the 26-59 year age bracket and many have 

parental access to children. This has an important impact on the supply of social 

housing as such applicants normally require 2 bedroom accommodation. 

20

Chart 2 Waiting List Household Composition (Housing Stress) March 2007 

In common with the other sectors in the city East Belfast is sub divided into a number of 

distinct housing areas, called Local Housing Areas for the purpose of administering the 

Common Selection Scheme for allocating social housing. At a local level there is 

considerable variation in housing demand within the study area. Waiting List figures for 

each of the Local Housing Areas in East Belfast is set out below: 

LHA Name Applicants Housing Stress Allocations P.A. 

Woodstock/Ravenhill 274 145 73 

Ballymacarrett 415 223 148 

Sydenham/Holywood 

Road 269 155 58 

Ballyhackamore 195 110 37 

Willowfield/ Castlereagh 

Road 411 256 91 

Ardcarn/ Stormont 42 20 14 

Belmont Road 61 27 5 

Bloomfield 198 111 36 

Knocknagoney/Garnerville 54 24 22 

Short Strand 80 54 18 

Dundonald Urban 346 185 65 

Dundonald Rural 17 6 12 

Tullycarnet 86 44 37 

Ballygowan Road 32 18 1 

Braniel 165 83 25 

Cregagh/Castlereagh 404 210 54 

Table 6 Study Area Waiting List and Allocations March 2007 

21

Most areas are experiencing increased demand which is not being met through relets of 

existing stock. A five year Social Housing Programme to meet social housing need is 

published annually by the Department for Social Development. The current programme 

for the study area aims to deliver approximately 800 units of accommodation across a 

number of locations and catering for a range of client groups. 

However, the provision of many of these schemes is dependent upon successful site 

acquisition. The popularity of East Belfast and competition from the private sector 

means that Housing Associations are finding it increasingly difficult to acquire suitable 

and financially viable sites in the sector. This situation has led the Housing Executive to 

review its land holdings in East Belfast and as a result a number of sites have been 

agreed for transfer to Housing Associations which will deliver approximately 250 units 

of social housing in the next 3 years in Connswater, Willowfield and Harland Walk. 

Homelessness. 

There has been a rise in the number of people presenting as homeless throughout 

Northern Ireland in recent years, a trend replicated in the study area. This has largely 

been attributed to increasing incidences of breakdown in marriage, relationship and 

sharing arrangements although there has also been a steady increase in the number 

awarded homeless status due to the loss of private rented accommodation. Chart 3 

below illustrates the numbers presenting and awarded Full Duty status in the past 3 

years. 

Chart 3 Study Area Homeless Applications 2003-2007 

More than half of households who presented as homeless in the last year were single 

people. Families with children accounted for over 30% of all presenters. 

22

4.5 Owner Occupation 

East Belfast continues to be an exceptionally popular housing area and this is reflected 

in average house prices which are among the highest in Northern Ireland for all property 

types. Owner occupation remains the preferred housing choice for a majority of people. 

Levels of owner occupation vary across the study area, ranging from 88% in the 

Orangefield Ward to 28% in Ballymacarrett. In the Castlereagh area owner occupation 

ranges from 91% in Ballyhanwood to 45% in Cregagh. Generally speaking the level of 

owner occupation is much lower in the inner city areas which underwent significant 

redevelopment in the past and in the large social estates built in the 1960s and 1970s. 

Since 1979 the Housing Executive has sold more than 115,000 dwellings to sitting 

tenants across Northern Ireland, the vast majority of which were at generously 

discounted prices. This accounts for almost a quarter of the owner occupied sector and 

16% of the housing market as a whole. In the study area a total of over 6,500 former 

Housing Executive dwellings have been sold, 3,800 in the Castlereagh area and 2,700 in 

Belfast. The level of sales has fallen since 2004, when against a background of growing 

waiting lists and a realisation that the scheme mitigated against the capability of housing 

organisations to meet urgent housing need, the rules on eligibility, discount and 

repayment were tightened. The revised scheme now also applies to Housing 

Associations, but the nature of much of their stock means that it is unlikely to have a 

major impact on the growth of owner occupation in the near future. The average market 

value of Housing Executive dwellings sold in the period April 2006 to January 2007 

was almost £75,000. 

A record number, almost 14,000 new private sector dwellings were started in the year 

April 2005 – March 2006 throughout Northern Ireland. In Belfast 1350 new private 

sector dwellings were started, a 40% rise from the previous year. Apartments are now 

the dominant building form in the private sector in Belfast, reflecting the sharp rise in 

land values in the past 2/3 years. It is important to note that a growing proportion of 

newly constructed private sector dwellings are entering the private rented sector, thus 

limiting the scope for further growth in owner occupation. 

4.6 Private Rental 

The private rented sector declined in importance throughout the last century as the 

combined effect of rent control, large scale redevelopment, particularly in Belfast, and 

the growth in owner occupation dramatically affected tenure patterns. In 1991 there 

were fewer than 30,000 privately rented dwellings in Northern Ireland, 5.5% of the total 

stock. 

There has been significant expansion of the sector, particularly since 1996 when there 

has been year on year growth. The rate of growth has accelerated rapidly, the number of 

dwellings increased at an annual average rate of 2,000 between 1996 and 2001. 

However, between 2001 and 2004 this had grown to almost 4,400 per annum, reflecting 

23

the growing interest in buy to let during this period. There are early indications from the 

2006 House Condition Survey that the rate of growth has continued to accelerate, 

particularly in urban areas and provincial towns. Approximately 74,000 dwellings or 

11% of the total Northern Ireland housing stock is now privately rented. Current trends 

would suggest that private rental will overtake social housing within the next 5-7 years. 

The rapid growth and strategic importance of the private rented sector led the Housing 

Executive and the Department for Social Development to produce a strategy to promote 

the sector and improve the quality of accommodation and its management. The strategy, 

“Renting Privately: A Strategic Framework”, was published in May 2004. The strategy 

has 6 core objectives, these are:- 

• To create a legislative structure for the sector which addresses inequities and 

targets unfitness through repair enforcement and rent control? 

• To clarify and promote the rights and responsibilities of private rented sector 

landlords and tenants. 

• To improve housing conditions in the private rented sector. 

• To facilitate housing choice, by promoting the private rented sector as a viable 

and affordable housing option. 

• To influence the levels of supply of accommodation available for private 

renting. 

• To promote high standards of management within the private rented sector. 

Progress in implementing the strategy has been made in a number of ways, most notably 

the publication of the draft Private Tenancies (N.I.) Order to be introduced in April 

2007. This Order will target unfitness in the sector and also provides clarification on the 

roles and responsibilities of landlords and tenants in relation to rents and repairs. 

The Housing Executive has commissioned further research into the Private Rented 

Sector which will examine the housing choices exercised by those living in the sector 

and their longer term intentions. Underpinning this research is a realisation that its 

popularity is related to ease of access with no lengthy list in areas of high demand, and 

also its desirable location and proximity to centres of education and employment, 

factors which are particularly relevant in East Belfast. 

There is some concern that the character of some areas and estates is being changed by 

the spread of Buy to Let. This is often seen as having a negative impact on those areas. 

Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) are an important element of the private rented 

sector. They are defined as houses occupied by persons who do not form a single 

household. The most recent figures from the 2004 House Condition Survey suggest that 

there are more than 14,000 HMOs in Northern Ireland, roughly one fifth of the entire 

sector. HMOs have an important role to play in meeting the needs of people who are 

single, who have temporary employment, students and those on low incomes. More 

recently HMOs have become home to a large number of migrant workers who have 

24

come to Northern Ireland since 2004. The Housing Executive aims to improve 

management standards in HMOs with a rolling programme of inspection, enforcement 

and grant aid. 

Due to the recent level of investor purchasers the supply of private rental property is 

seen to be high in East Belfast, with good choice for tenants. The market is dominated 

by landlords who operate on a small scale,(over 70% of landlords had 5 properties or 

less) and who have entered the sector within the last 5 years ie since 2001. Average 

rents for terrace property are £450-500 per month with larger properties attracting 

higher levels. It is widely accepted that investors are not covering return through rental 

income and that they are reliant upon capital gain to achieve an overall high rate of 

return. Terrace property in East Belfast increased in value by around £2500-3000 per 

month throughout 2006, providing confirmation that “Buy to Let” was a very attractive 

investment in the current climate. 

In terms of location, it is felt that Cregagh will become a more popular rental area and 

an extension of the South Belfast market in a rippling out effect from the Ormeau- 

Ravenhill areas. 

25

5.0 Private Sector Market Perspective 

“In terms of price inflation, we are in the throes of a boom of unprecedented 

proportions”. NI Quarterly House Price Index (University of Ulster ) 

December 2006 

In compiling this study the Housing Executive commissioned the University of Ulsters’ 

School of the Built Environment to undertake an analysis of the East Belfast Housing 

Market. The analysis addressed a number of key issues currently affecting the market, 

most notably affordability issues, hot spots, impact of co ownership, spread of buy to let 

and the impact on first time buyers. The market analysis is summarised in the points 

below: 

• Northern Ireland is currently experiencing unprecedented rates of house price 

growth. House prices rose by 37% in 2006, the highest growth anywhere in 

Europe. East Belfast which historically was a high price area is widely 

considered to be “overheated”. 

Chart 4 Average House Prices 2003-2006 

(University of Ulster) 

• House prices have increased substantially across Northern Ireland. Only one 

area (Coleraine/Limavady/North Coast, 17.8%) had an annual rise in Q4 

2005-2006 of less than 20%. 

26

Average 

Price 2003 

Quarter 4 

Average 

Price 2004 

Quarter 4 

Average 

Price 2005 

Quarter 4 

Average 

Price 2006 

Quarter 4 

Change 

Northern 

Ireland £105,863 £118,313 £145,987 £195,751 85% 

Belfast All 

£105,242 £112,849 £135,781 £191,819 82% 

North 

Belfast £83,825 £89,320 £103,384 £152,145 82% 

South 


West 


East 


Table 8 Average House Prices (University of Ulster) 

• Political stability and economic growth have combined to change the character 

of the East Belfast market. New buyers have been attracted to locations such as 

Cregagh, Bloomfield and Sydenham where price rises, particularly in terrace 

property have doubled in the past 3 years. Ex- NIHE property is also 

experiencing significant rises in price. Terrace property in Ballybeen and 

Tullycarnet now sell in excess of £120k. 

• The two main drivers of the market are the role of investors and relatively strong 

first time buyer activity, particularly in property in the £150k-£170k range. Most 

first time buyers are “Stretching to their financial limit” in order to gain a 

foothold onto the market. Lenders have tailored policies to address affordability 

issues. These include 35 year mortgage terms, joint purchasing buying and 

renting rooms to friends (the Stranmillis purchase) and 100% loans. In 

December 2006 almost 60% of first time buyers bought property in excess of the 

£125k threshold for Stamp Duty. It is widely recognised that interest rate rises 

will mitigate against first time buyers, although recent rises have not had a “ 

cooling effect “ on the market. 

• Investors have been traditionally been most active in South Belfast where a 

growing population and shortage of accommodation has ensured premium rental 

income in addition to significant capital gain. However as that market has 

become more saturated, investors have been looking elsewhere, as have 

prospective private tenants. In East Belfast competition between investors and 

first time buyers has been most acute in the terrace house market. This has led to 

first time buyers either “overstretching “or being outbid. The Co ownership 

threshold of £150k has largely been eroded in the study area. Investors have 

also been active in the new build sector as subsequent releases of schemes tend 

to command higher prices. 

27

Property Type 

Average Price 

2005 Quarter 3 

Average Price 

2006 Quarter 3 Change 

Terrace £113,392 £144,658 28% 

Semi Detached £147,382 £212,834 44% 

Detached £250,009 £310,627 24% 

Bungalow As Detached £263,018 

Apartment £106,443 £135,605 27% 

Table 9 East Belfast Average House Price (University of Ulster) 

• Trading up within East Belfast is still a significant part of the market but estate 

agents indicate that it has not always been possible to obtain houses (most 

notably semi detached) for second time buyers in East Belfast due to high prices 

and have purchased in neighbouring markets such as Ballygowan and 

Newtownards. A similar pattern emerged in South Belfast in the recent past 

where where people traded up from areas such as Ballynafeigh to Carryduff and 

Newtownbreda. Movement into East Belfast from the south and southeast of the 

city was previously seen to be driven by price differential but the price gap has 

closed in the past 18 months, leading to growing linkages between the housing 

markets in these areas. 

• Estate agents feel that the development of Titanic Quarter will have little impact 

on the East Belfast market, most consider that it will relate more to the city 

centre. BMAP envisages social housing comprising 15% of the total housing 

within Titanic Quarter and the Housing Executive fully supports this view. 

There is concern that a large number of apartments coming onto the market at 

the same time will lead to high vacancy levels in the short/medium term, similar 

to what happened in South Belfast and the city centre in the 1998-2003 period 

when the rental market was weak. 

• Development land has also increased in price recently. A 5.5 acre site in East 

Belfast has been valued at over a million pounds per acre. (February 2007). This 

may lead to more windfall sites coming on the market as owners seek to “Cash 

In “ on the property price boom but the high land values will have a 

corresponding impact on price and density. 

28

6.0 Key Housing Issues 

• Affordability 

Affordability has emerged as a major problem in Northern Ireland since 2001. In 2001 

over 60% of all house sales went to first time buyers as the low interest environment 

and flexible mortgage products combined to ensure that debt servicing costs generally 

remained at manageable levels. 

The rapid house price growth since 2003 has seen the proportion of sales to first time 

buyers fall steadily so that by 2006, only 30% of all sales were to first time buyers. This 

indicates the scale of the problem facing many potential first time buyers who are now 

being forced to remain with parents, apply for social housing or enter the private rented 

sector. 

East Belfast has traditionally been a” high price” area with average prices above both 

the Belfast city and Northern Ireland levels. The terrace market has seen almost frenzied 

competition between investors and first time buyers pushing prices to unprecedented 

levels. East Belfast has also benefited from a lack of sectarian division, with the 

exception of the Lower Newtownards/ Short Strand interface. Furthermore the location 

of several well known schools within East Belfast has made the area popular for 

families, so that prices in the middle and upper sector of the market are often on a par 

with South Belfast. 

The Review of Affordable Housing undertaken by Sir John Semple reported in April 

2007 and makes a series of recommendations to improve access to affordable housing. 

The Housing Executive responded positively to this review. Implementation of its 

recommendations will cross existing Departmental responsibilities and will require a 

“Joined Up “ approach. The Housing Executive is fully committed to this concept and 

will incorporate the Review’s recommendations, where appropriate, into its existing and 

future Area Based Strategies. 

• Growth of private rented sector 

The growth of the private rented sector in East Belfast can be attributed to a number of 

factors, most notably market forces. More property has been made available as the Buy 

to Let market has expanded and the pool of people wishing to live there has expanded 

and other housing options, owner occupation and social housing, have become more 

difficult to access. 

The rapid growth of the ‘Buy to Let’ market has stymied the increase in owner 

occupation throughout Northern Ireland. This trend is set to continue as poor stock 

market performance and low investment returns since 2001/2002 has made investment 

in property a safer option for many people. The increased number of properties 

available for rent has had an effect on rental levels, making them affordable for many 

people, particularly those potential first time buyers unable to gain a foothold in the 

current inflationary climate. While the current huge price rises are not expected to 

29

continue in the longer term, the fact remains that renting privately is likely become 

more attractive for a growing number of people in the future. 

• Land Supply 

The continued popularity of East Belfast as a residential location and lack of 

development land, outside former industrial Laganside sites and Titanic Quarter, mean 

that there is limited potential to increase the overall housing stock. Competition from 

the private sector for sites is acute and has an obvious effect on prices. Housing 

Associations have difficulty in obtaining sites, thus increasing pressure on social 

housing waiting lists. Titanic Quarter is being seen as being largely separate to the East 

Belfast market. 

Competition for sites is having a real impact on housing densities which are now much 

higher than those of 5-10 years ago. One of the main objectives of both BMAP and 

PPS12; higher density, is now being achieved through the operation of market forces 

rather than as a result of the Planning system. The Semple Review on Affordability has 

made a series of recommendations about how the supply of affordable housing can be 

increased through the Planning system. 

• Declining social stock/rising demand 

The Housing Executive’s House Sales policy has been very effective in widening home 

ownership throughout Northern Ireland. However this has resulted in the loss of over 

50% of the available social stock in most areas. Replacement of stock has been difficult 

due to lack of sites. The changes to the scheme introduced in 2004 have slowed down 

the rate of sales; however this has coincided with a rise in demand for social housing. 

The average time spent on the Waiting List by applicants has risen in most areas. The 

Department for Social Development anticipates that funding for 1,500 new social 

housing units will be available for the next 5 years. Future levels of social new build are 

likely to be influenced by the outcome of the Government’s Comprehensive Spending 

Review. The Housing Executive will continue to promote and facilitate social and 

affordable homes. 

30

The East Belfast Housing Market 

Report to the Northern Ireland Housing Executive 

From the School of the Built Environment, University of Ulster 

31

32 

July 2006

Contents 

1. Introduction and approach to the study 

3 

2. General perceptions on how the housing market is operating in East Belfast 4 

3. Price levels 5 

4. Demand-side issues 8 

5. Supply-side issues 11 

6. Impact of buy-to-let/investment market 13 

7. Market imbalances 15 

8. Relationship of East Belfast market to the rest of the city 16 

9. Main strengths and perceived problems in the East Belfast housing market 17 

10. Conclusions 18 

Appendices 20 

33

1. Introduction and approach to the study 

1.1 The purpose of this study was to deepen the understanding of what is currently 

happening in the East Belfast housing market. The interpretation of the study 

area was slightly wider than the city limits and included core East Belfast (inner, 

middle and outer) essentially postal code areas BT4, 5 and 6 and that part of 

urban Castlereagh which constitutes the East Belfast market including parts of 

postal codes BT5 and BT6 and BT16 (Dundonald). 

1.2 The approach to the study was based on semi-structured interviews with agents 

active in the East Belfast market. In total 11 interviews were taken which gave a 

highly comprehensive view of the market in East Belfast (see Appendix 1 for 

list). The estate agencies that took part in the study represent large, medium and 

smaller practices in terms of the volume of sales. Some practices had multioffices 

within East Belfast, most were able to reflect upon the wider East Belfast 

market though some had more specialised knowledge on specific locations. 

Some of the agencies were involved in both new build activity and the second 

hand market, whereas others were exclusively selling existing properties. Most 

practices were involved only in sales though some did both sales and rentals, 

and reflecting the growing importance of the buy-to-let market some practices 

had recently diversified into the rental market. The majority of practices and 

personnel interviewed had a long-track record in the East Belfast market (10-15- 

20 years) with some newer practices or companies recently established through 

the churn that takes place in the sector. The varied profile of practices included 

in the study ensured that opinion was captured across the market by location, 

property type, new build and the existing market, sales and rental activity. 

1.3 The study was to address a number of key issues in the East Belfast market 

namely affordability issues, hot spots, supply, impact of co-ownership, spread of 

buy-to-let with key questions focussing on who is buying, what type of 

properties are being bought, where are buyers coming from, are there first-time 

buyers, who is selling, where are they going, what is the volume of sales 

activity? These key issues and questions guided the development of the pro 

forma for the interviews (copy in Appendix 2) and structure of this report. 

1.4 The interviews underpinning the study were conducted during the last week of 

June and first week of July 2006 to capture market activity for the second 

quarter of 2006. The over-riding consideration to arise across all interviews was 

the “hot” market that prevailed during this quarter. 

34

2. General perceptions on how the housing market is operating in East 


2.1 The over-riding consensus of opinion is that East Belfast is currently 

experiencing unprecedented rates of house price growth. The market is 

perceived to be extremely hot with very high levels of demand. It was observed 

that sale prices were regularly 10 to 15% over the asking price. The rate of 

growth was considered to be exceptional with everything selling that is coming 

on the market. Several agents indicated that properties are frequently selling 

within days of being listed. Both the home-ownership and investor markets were 

seen as being strong with investors often out-bidding the home-owner. The 

overall picture is currently one of high price levels and high rates of growth. 

Price levels and rates of growth are elaborated upon in Section 3 of this report. 

2.2 The current market is perceived to be driven by two main influences the role of 

investors and strong first-time buyer activity. The terraced market is identified 

as being particularly active with the perception of being investment driven. The 

first-time buyer market was considered to be a key factor with a scramble to get 

into the housing market. The perception prevailed that the market has never 

been stronger with a combination of home-owners and investors. To quote one 

agent “ we haven’t seen a market like this for six or seven years”. 

2.3 There was considered to be a changing character to the East Belfast market with 

new investments, new jobs and new people moving into the area coupled with a 

marked decline in past sectarian tensions and paramilitary emblems. 

Gentrification was seen to be taking place. According to one agent as the 

shopping facilities in Belmont change, with more upmarket coffee shops and 

eateries/winebars appearing “it is no longer Strandtown but Belmont Village”. 

East Belfast was perceived to have become a very popular location attracting 

purchasers from both sides of the religious community in Northern Ireland and 

has become the alternative for those priced out of the South Belfast market. 

According to one agent “BT 9 is moving towards BT 4, 5 and 6”. The overall 

perception is that the East Belfast market is having wider appeal and attracting 

an influx of purchasers. East Belfast was seen to have a mixed community 

which was helping the health of the housing market. Migrant workers were also 

a feature of the rental market (see para 6.4). 

2.4 A consequence of the changing character of East Belfast has been a new mix of 

buyer in the market across locations such as Cregagh, Bloomfield, Sydenham. 

The market is considered to be very competitive with purchasers needing to be 

businesslike and aggressive in order to secure the best price. Due to the steeply 

rising market, one agent considered that gazumping was taking place 

particularly if there was an element of delay with the first agreement to sell. 

Another agent referred to time taken by solicitors as not keeping pace with 

market activity. Co-ownership purchasers were seen to be at a disadvantage in 

such a feverish market (this is developed further in 4.12). 

2.5 Perceived attractions of the East Belfast market include several high quality 

schools at both primary and secondary (grammar) level. With the proposed 

35

changes to the education system in Northern Ireland several agents saw clear 

parallels with circumstances that have prevailed in England in terms of living 

within particular postal code districts and catchment areas of schools. One agent 

even distinguished within East Belfast suggesting that the market in BT5 is not 

as strong as BT4, as the schools are in BT4. 

3. Price levels 

3.1 The East Belfast market is currently characterised by high price growth, this is 

variously estimated by agents as a 20% to 30% increase in the first half of 2006 

and up to 40% over the year for terraced houses. One agent placed the rate of 

increase at 10% alone over the six week period from mid-May to the end of 

June. The overall point was made that everything that comes on the market sells 

very quickly, sometimes within days but generally within three weeks at well 

above list price. There is buoyancy across the board with the observation that as 

long as there is a surplus of buyers there will continue to be reasonably good 

growth in the market. 

3.2 Some of the examples quoted by agents for individual transactions illustrate the 

frenzied activity that currently characterises the East Belfast market: 

• in Sydenham a terraced property sold for £95,000 in October 2005 

now selling in June 2006 for £140,000 

• Sydenham Avenue a 3 bedroom semi-detached house without a garage 

increased by £37,500 in 6 weeks and sold for £237,500 

• terraced houses on the Cregagh Road fetching £160,000 

• in Bloomfield an uplift in the price of terraced houses from £95,000 at 

the start of the year to £135,000 by end of second quarter 

• terraced house in Connswater sold in November 2005 for £85,000 now 

fetching £135,000 to £140,000 

• Ballybeen where a typical property would have sold for £75,000- 

80,000 in June 2005 was achieving £125,000 in the second quarter of 

2006 

• a large semi-detached house in Belmont Park listed at £285,000 selling 

for £380,000 within a two week marketing period. 

The growth in price levels was seen by one agent to be making it more difficult 

to value property. 

3.3 There is overall agreement that these trends are unsustainable and that there was 

short-term sustainability issues. While there was no sign of the market falling 

there was varied opinion as to high the market could go. One agent considered 

that some “equalisation” of the market may take place over the summer period 

though there was no indication of any short-term let-up and no evidence of the 

market slowing-up. It was observed that investors are currently prepared “to pay 

more money for properties that they would not have touched as recently as 18 

months ago”. This activity was seen as driving the market up with first-time 

buyers stretching themselves to get into the market. It was recognised that firsttime 

buyers were finding it increasingly difficult to access the property ladder, 

36

they were up against investors and this was pushing the bottom end of the 

market more so than any other sector. In particular in the 2/3 bedroom terraced 

house sector there was a lot of competition between investors and first-time 

buyers and to quote one agent the terraced sector was seen to be composed of “a 

lot of markets”. 

3.4 Price differences are apparent across the market and by property type. The 

lower end of the market is seen to be very buoyant (defined as being below the 

£250,000, 3% stamp duty threshold). The top end of the market is also 

performing well with a lot of property in the £300-£600K price range, whereas 

three to four years ago there would have been relatively few properties in this 

price band. However, the first-time buyer market is seen by many agents as 

being by far the strongest market with terraced houses up to £150,000 having 

the greatest rate of growth. The semi-detached house market was seen to have a 

lower rate of price growth than terraced property but possessed more potential 

for growth. In the detached sector there is less growth but some agents felt that 

this sector may come through strongly towards the end of the year. Apartments 

were also seen to be performing well with price growth from £105K to £140K 

within the period from January to June 2006. 

3.5 Some agents pointed to the traditional strength of the market in BT4 and the 

hierarchy of BT4 stronger than BT5 and BT6. However, there was evidence that 

with the rapid rate of price growth this simplified view of the East Belfast 

market was changing with for example the upper end of the terraced market 

increasing substantially in the Ravenhill/Gregagh Road areas. Also significant 

growth was starting to occur in the lower Ravenhill Road and Woodstock Road 

(in the £90-100K range). The schooling issue was identified as making the East 

Belfast market, notably BT4, very attractive to families with a lot of demand for 

4 bedroom semi-detached property, as the equivalent property in the detached 

sector was often considered to be out of reach. 

3.6 The overall perspective that arises is that the market is hot right across this part 

of Belfast, as one agent stated “from the Ravenhill Road across to the Old 

Holywood Road and up to Dundonald the market is hot”. Particular locations 

that emerged in several interviews as hot-spots include Sydenham, Bloomfield, 

Connswater and Cregagh. These areas were seen to be target locations for the 

first-time buyer with the market very strong for terraced property. In the case of 

Cregagh, one agent drew parallels to Stranmillis in South Belfast suggesting that 

price levels are beyond expectations and the likelihood that Cregagh may 

develop from a first-time buyer area to a rental location. 

3.7 Sydenham is perceived to be a highly changed location. Previously, the 

Holywood Road was seen a as natural barrier for the housing market, but the 

image of Sydenham has changed dramatically. In particular the success of the 

Lewis Square development was seen as being a highly influential factor with 

Sydenham becoming a first time buyer choice for the young professional 

wanting to get on the property ladder. Property values in Lewis Square have 

altered significantly over the past six months with the current phase of the 

scheme now selling at £160,000. The spill-over effect of Titanic Quarter, 

although development has not yet commenced, was also seen to be highly 

37

significant in the re-branding of Sydenham with two bedroom terrace houses in 

Sydenham starting at £150,000. 

3.8 Ex-NIHE property is also considered to be following the same trend with typical 

terraced property in Ballybeen and Tullycarnet achieving £110,000 and 

experiencing significant increases in price level. 

3.9 Agents identify that macroeconomic factors have been influential in 

contributing to the rate of increase in the East Belfast market notably access to 

cheap money, low interest rates and an easy borrowing environment. However, 

one of the main factors driving price levels was a perceived shortage of 

properties coming on the market. 

3.10 Agents fully recognised affordability concerns particularly as investors are often 

out-bidding the first-time buyer leading to a shortage of sale listings in the 

£100,000-£110,000 price band. From the interview evidence, it is apparent that 

different mechanisms are being used by first-time buyers to address affordability 

issues. These include a growing trend to use a 35 year mortgage; joint 

purchasing; buying and renting rooms to friends; parents paying deposits, 100% 

lending by some companies and co-ownership helping somewhat. Also lenders 

were no longer applying simple multiplier factors but were prepared to advance 

loans on a more flexible lifestyle basis. The significant point was made that 

purchasers, first-time buyers in particular, are doing some innovative things to 

share costs though some agents expressed the concern that first-time buyers and 

indeed other purchasers are living beyond their means. The affordability issue 

was also seen as leading to people buying later in life. 

38

4. Demand-side issues 

4.1 The East Belfast market experienced high demand pressures throughout the 

second quarter of 2006. Demand is seen to be strong across all sectors of the 

market but with first-time buyers and investors to the forefront. In particular, for 

properties up to a value of £150,000 purchasers were evenly split between firsttime 

buyers and investors. First-time buyers were seen to be particularly strong 

in the market during second quarter with a clear focus on the terraced house 

sector One agent estimated that overall demand was running at a level two to 

three times above that for the same quarter in 2005 and according to another 

agent “the level of demand has never been higher”. One agent indicated that his 

practice currently don’t use their contact list as essentially they don’t want any 

more viewers given the demand levels that already exist. 

4.2 There was agreement that the main sources of demand are from first-time buyers 

and investors. This is resulting in a changed buyer profile with one agent 

indicating that for terraces “the buyer is likely to be either a 40 year old investor 

or a couple of 20-somethings that have been working for a few years for a 

deposit”. 

4.3 Estimates of the extent of investor activity in the market are variable with no 

specific monitoring or analysis of the situation by agents. Those on the low side 

suggest that investors are currently taking 20-30% of the market while some 

agents placed investment sales as high as 50%. Several agents agreed that the 

current interest in the property market has been fuelled by investor activity, 

39

though one major agent with an extensive market share in both East and South 

Belfast was of the opinion that, on a comparative basis, the East Belfast 

investment market was not to the same scale of activity. Another agent was of 

the opinion that although investors were still strong in the market there was the 

perception that the level of investment activity had dropped off as prices had 

increased. Investors often had little association with East Belfast and were drawn 

from other parts of Belfast, from throughout Northern Ireland and indeed also 

from the Republic of Ireland. 

4.4 The second key driver in the market has been the first-time buyer. There was a 

consideration that the number of investors has reduced as the year has progressed 

due to rental income expectations not being met. This has allowed more firsttime 

buyers to enter the market. 

4.5 Trading-up within the East Belfast market was still a significant part of the 

market dynamic with a general desire by people to stay within the area; one agent 

estimated that trading-up activity accounted for as high as 45% of the market. As 

part of the trading-up process, agents identified certain evidence of outmovement 

with people selling high in East Belfast and buying in locations 

outside of the city (County Down coast but also in locations such as Ballyclare 

and Carrickfergus – entirely different markets). Part of this out-movement is 

perceived to be people capitalising upon the high price structure in East Belfast 

and purchasing in cheaper locations, though agents considered that those 

exercising this type of strategy may have difficulties in re-entering the East 

Belfast market in the future. Whilst, the second-time buyer frequently sought to 

trade-up within East Belfast, agents indicated that it has not always been possible 

to obtain houses (notable semi-detached houses) in East Belfast, a reflection of 

the high price to be paid if trading-up, and as a result have purchased in 

neighbouring markets such as Ballygowan and Newtownards. 

4.6 Demand was seen to come from that created internally within the East Belfast 

market but also there was a significant inflow from the South Belfast market 

notably for family accommodation. Indeed some agents refer to the influx from 

South Belfast, with East Belfast seen as a good second option as there is still an 

attractive price differential (for example according to one agent 50% of the 

people looking at places like Knocklofty are from South Belfast). The high prices 

in the south of the city are a trigger, but also linked to the schools issue. 

Seemingly several high quality schools in East Belfast has made this part of the 

city popular for families, notably those prepared to pay to get into school 

catchment areas. 

4.7 Movement into East Belfast from the south and southeast of the city was often 

seen to be driven by price differentials. The latter was related to the problems of 

first-time buyers not able to afford South Belfast and looking to East Belfast as a 

potentially lower priced market, though with the rapid growth of prices in East 

Belfast during 2006 the gap is perceived to be closing. One agent referred to a 

panic and another to panic buying within the first-time buyer market which was 

making people aggressive in bidding-up the market with, as a result, even poor 

quality stock selling quickly for high prices. Hence, the perception that East 

40

Belfast in the second quarter of 2006 was a frenzied market with people often 

desperate to get on the housing ladder and over-stretching themselves financially. 

4.8 There was also seen to be an influx into East Belfast by purchasers coming from 

provincial parts of Northern Ireland (Omagh, Enniskillen, Derry) as well as from 

more adjacent markets (Bangor, Newtownards). The migrant worker issue may 

not be as strong in East Belfast as elsewhere, though one agent indicated that 

there was a big demand from the Polish community for property in Cregagh. 

Hence the local first-time buyer has had to compete to stay within East Belfast 

and competition has inflated prices. 

4.9 Thus sources of demand in East Belfast are diverse spanning both the traditional 

market and newcomers. New build was seen to generate high demand levels 

notably schemes at Winfield Halt and Beersbridge Road. Terraced property was 

seen to generate demand from both investors and first-time buyers; and for semidetached 

houses and detached houses demand was driven by the need for family 

accommodation. 

4.10 The East Belfast market was considered to have a lot of appeal, the environment, 

transport, infrastructure were all stressed, factors that help generate demand 

within housing markets. 

4.11 Demand was seen to have been stimulated by the number of 100% mortgage 

loans being made. This can lead to aggressive buyers over-extending 

themselves. One agent referred to the naivety amongst buyers due to the low 

interest rate environment many of whom lack any idea of the terms of 

agreement. In the current market situation, there was the perception that 

solicitors and the lenders are too slow and not in tune with the market. Solicitors 

were seen to be jeopardising sales and were perceived to be a factor in certain 

sales falling through with vendors agreeing with a second party at a higher 

price, reflecting the price increases in the market, during the period of delay. 

4.12 Other factors that are augmenting the level of demand is the relatively high 

number of people getting divorced, selling and downsizing, potentially leading 

to the need for two smaller properties. 

4.13 Co-ownership was recognised by a number of the agents as providing some help 

to first-time buyers seeking to enter the East Belfast housing market and was 

considered in principle to be a good mechanism but needed to be more flexible 

if clients are to compete in the market place. However the number of sales 

through the co-ownership route is low, though one agent indicated a contrary 

position that his practice was dealing with more co-owner clients. Another 

agent expressed the view that with the market rising at such a fast rate, the extra 

administration, surveys required of a co-ownership sale, issues regarding state 

of repair and the perception that co-ownership under-values may mean the 

potential purchaser could lose the property. A further agent dismissed coownership 

as “irrelevant in an active bidding market” as the co-ownership 

purchaser will always be outbid. Also there was the perception that different 

mortgage products offered by the building societies and banks could be taking a 

significant volume of business away from co-ownership. There was a feeling 

41

that the current price thresholds for co-ownership were under pressure and that 

levels which were “just about alright” were being eroded due to the rapid rate of 

house price growth in East Belfast. 

42

5. Supply-side issues 

5.1 The amount of housing supply is governed by two main factors namely the 

churn in the existing market through owners trading-up in the market or selling 

for other reasons and supply provided through new build activity. On both of 

these sources a range of evidence was provided by the estate agent interviews. 

5.2 Compared to the same period in 2005 a number of agents considered that they 

were doing a larger volume of sales and that there was a good flow of property 

onto the market. One agent considered that the level of sales on existing 

property is probably up by 10% to 15% over 2005 with properties still coming 

on the market as house-owners trade-up, though some other agents suggested 

that the volume of activity was lower. There was agreement by all agents that 

with the high level of demand property is selling very quickly and not being 

replaced at the same rate by housing coming on the market. The small length of 

time on the market was creating the perception of less supply, with the fewer 

number of properties on the market a function of the fact that everything on the 

market was selling within a short period of time rather than a reduced overall 

supply. The significance of the investor market has added to the perception of 

fewer properties being on the market. This was seen to impact upon choice with 

one agent suggesting that there is a massive lack of choice, “for every terrace 

you could sell five all to good buyers with people being forced to look outside 

East Belfast to Ballygowan, Newtownards, Bangor”. 

5.3 There seems to be a combination of people selling namely the first-time seller, 

those who are moving /trading-up within the East Belfast market and those who 

are moving out. For many agents, the trading-up process in the existing market 

was still a key aspect of supply. There was agreement that most home-owners 

will seek to remain within East Belfast though some will seize the opportunity 

to acquire a high price for their terraced property and potentially purchase a 

detached bungalow in Newtownards or in the coastal villages of Millisle and 

Ballywalter. There was a general perception of not enough semi-detached 

property available. 

5.4 A further source of supply in the existing market was from the significant 

number of elderly people selling family homes and going into retirement homes 

or living with family. According to agents this has become an important niche 

in the market and adding to the supply 1 . 

5.5 Several agents considered that there was significant input of new build activity 

which was dominated by developments within the urban footprint rather than on 

greenfield sites. One agent referred to recent involvement in two major schemes 

with more than 250 properties in each development. There was the overall 

perception that new build supply was strong. Several agents highlighted the 

Lewis Square development as an example of a very successful inner city 

1 Report by Healthy Cities Belfast (April 2006) shows that a number of wards in East Belfast namely 

Cherryvaley, Stormont, Knock and Orangefield to be amongst those in the city to have the highest 

proportion of population aged 60 and over. Castlereagh also has 21% of its population aged 60 or over. 

43

scheme. The scheme is attracting young professional purchasers and potentially 

changing the character of the area with the potential to re-develop other sites in 

the vicinity (eg the Oval). Other new build schemes referred to included various 

apartment developments on the Upper Newtownards Road, Sydenham – 

apartments and townhouses, Orminston Square (Belmont Road) 3 storey 

townhouses, Templemore Avenue, the former Dale Farm premises on 

Montgomery Road; Elmgrove on Beersbridge Road. These schemes were seen 

to have the potential of contributing to regeneration goals and changing the 

character of areas with the influx of new purchasers. However, some agents 

took a contrary perspective and discounted the level of new build activity as not 

being of sufficient magnitude to impact on the market and meeting first-time 

buyer requirements. 

5.6 Planning issues were not seen as a big concern and often did not impinge on the 

activities of estate agents whose main involvement is later in the process after 

planning permission is granted. One agent considered that “delays were 

accepted and simply built-into the equation” and another considered the 

“planning process to be long and restrictive”. There was variable evidence on 

infill sites with one agent suggesting that density rules have been abandoned as 

planning for such schemes seems to be getting approved regardless. However, 

another agent was of the opinion that planning policy is making infill 

developments more difficult with so many consultations with Roads Service and 

other agencies increasing the hurdles to get planning permission. 

5.7 There was considered to be little scope for peripheral expansion in East Belfast 

apart from within Dundonald. The lack of land release was identified. One agent 

considered that the greenfield/brownfield debate needed re-opening and another 

agent identified the possibly of development on the green belt at Glenmachan. 

Concern was also expressed that most of the major sites within the urban 

footprint have been used, with Garnerville when released the last substantial 

site, thereby potentially limiting future opportunities. The steep uplift in 

property price was seen to be causing big problems for developers in terms of 

bidding for land and pricing/timing of new build releases. 

5.8 Most agents viewed Titanic Quarter and the proposed development of Odyssey 

Village in a positive manner with the potential for spin-off effects and raising 

the profile of the East Belfast market. Indeed it was suggested that this was 

already happening with schemes such as Lewis Square development in 

Sydenham (Mersey Street) providing new homes in formerly difficult inner-city 

locations where the property market would previously have been very subdued. 

However, Titanic Quarter was considered to have little or no impact on the 

wider East Belfast market. Several agents considered that Titanic Quarter was 

perceived to be a separate market and one more related to the city centre than 

East Belfast. There was a feeling that Titanic Quarter needs to be made 

attractive to the first-time buyer with a need to get people living there with one 

agent considering there was not a need for more apartments but a better mix of 

housing. 

5.9 Ex-Housing Executive properties are seen to be performing an important role in 

re-cycling property in the second-hand market with some very sought after 

44

property in Edenvale (Belmont Road). There was a feeling that the stigma that 

may have been associated with public sector housing estates has largely 

disappeared. Several agents indicated that resale activity of ex-Housing 

Executive properties was considered to be a growing aspect of the market, a 

buoyant sector and had added to the level of owner-occupation. Although 

locations such as Ballybeen and Tullycarnet have experienced significant price 

growth recently, these properties are seen to have first-time buyer appeal. The 

changing character of estates, which were seen to be becoming increasingly 

owner occupier, was seen as a bonus and has contributed to raising the profile 

of East Belfast. The price gap between ex-Housing Executive properties and the 

private market was seen to have narrowed. 

6. Impact of buy-to-let/investment market 

6.1 It is considered that the investor market has raised demand in East Belfast with 

the increased competition leading to higher than anticipated price levels and 

eating into the stock on the market as investors are holding property in the 

expectation of capital growth. This has had implications for the supply-side and 

the dynamic of the housing market in terms of the number of properties coming 

back on the market. Most agents acknowledged that growth in the buy-to-let 

market was impacting upon the home-ownership sector though it was stressed 

that this was not of the magnitude that exists in South Belfast. 

6.2 The main impact on the home-ownership market has been focussed on first-time 

buyers with competition between investors and purchasers most intense in the 

terraced house market. This has led to first-time buyers either being overstretched 

in terms of prices paid or being out-bid. Investor activity was also 

perceived to be strong in the new build sector due to the practice that subsequent 

releases of schemes tend to command higher prices. 

6.3 Demand for private rental property in East Belfast is considered to be average, 

though a growing market. Reflecting the potential for growth in private rentals it 

is significant that a number of the estate agency practices that participated in the 

interview had recently started to diversify into the rental sector, suggesting a 

market niche. Some agents were reporting more rental properties on their books 

than properties for sale emphasising the type of market imbalance that is 

currently characterising the East Belfast market. 

6.4 Demand was seen to be from a number of sources. The housing benefit, DHSS 

tenant, was an important component of the market particularly for ex-Housing 

Executive properties. The increasing number of divorces and household 

dissolutions was seen as a factor helping the rental market where one or other if 

not both parties may be looking for short-term accommodation (one or two 

years) before re-purchasing and having the desire to remain living within East 

Belfast. One agent also indicated that due to debt accumulation some homeowners 

were selling their properties to obtain capital and moving to the rental 

45

sector for at least the short-term. There was also evidence of some rental in the 

professional worker sector, with some cross movement from the South Belfast 

market though there were doubts as to whether there was a big enough transient 

workforce to fuel growth. Civil servants in government departments at Stormont 

and hospital staff in Dundonald were identified as potential targets for rental 

accommodation but otherwise the market was considered to be limited. Migrant 

workers were estimated to contribute somewhere between 10 to 20% of the 

market. 

6.5 Due to the recent level of investor purchasers the supply of private rental 

property is seen to be high in East Belfast with the perception of good choice for 

tenants. It was considered that properties will not rent if they are over-priced or 

not of a good specification. 

6.6 There was a perception that rents were too low: according to one agent the 

average rental for a terraced property is £450-500 per month whereas it should be 

at least £600 per month. According to another agent, rental levels in the terraced 

sector were seen to be too closely aligned to the DHSS tenant. A further agent 

indicated that rental levels varied between £350 and £1000 per month depending 

upon type and location of the property in East Belfast. 

6.7 After allowing for rental income and outgoings (mortgage payment, fees, rates, 

repairs and other charges) estimates by one agent suggested that the average 

outlay by an investor is circa £150 per month. With property prices increasing at 

£500 per week 2 this was described by the agent “as a no brainer”. Another agent 

was of the opinion that the reform of rates and the likely increases to be borne 

next year by the property owner may curb the buy-to-let market in East Belfast 

as it is unlikely that the increase in rates will be passed to the tenant given the 

level of rental supply in the market. 

6.8 There was agreement amongst all agents that investors are not covering return 

through rental income alone and that investors are banking upon taking the 

capital gain to achieve an overall high rate of return. The point was made by 

several agents that investors were paying price levels that simply could not be 

covered by current rental levels with the inference that capital growth was 

producing the return. 

6.9 In terms of locations within East Belfast, it was felt that Cregagh will become a 

rental area and an extension of the South Belfast rental market in a rippling-out 

effect from the Ormeau-Ravenhill areas. There was the overall perception that 

Titanic Quarter should enhance the market though there was a concern about 

apartment schemes having a high vacancy level if the rental market is not there. 

2 Bridle writing in the Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Report No 85 

46

7. Market imbalances 

7.1 Market imbalance occurs whenever demand and supply are out of equilibrium. 

Economic theory shows that the price of a commodity increases when demand is 

high and supply is constrained. This is often a feature of housing markets as 

supply is in-elastic and cannot adjust to short-term increases in demand. Indeed, 

short-run supply issues are considered as being very difficult to address due to 

the lack of land and the time that it takes to getting planning permission granted. 

7.2 The East Belfast market during the second quarter of 2006 is characterised by a 

combination of high demand and a supply-side which was not able to keep pace 

with demand. In accordance with the theory of markets, this imbalance is driving 

price levels upward. The imbalance is particularly apparent in the terraced 

market and to a lesser degree the semi-detached market. There was a feeling that 

to bring the local market back into balance there would have to be some major 

negative effect on the housing market eg a large interest rate hike or the buy-tolet/investor 

market collapsing/reducing substantially due to poor returns. 

7.3 The current imbalance in the owner-occupied sector is demand-side driven, the 

consensus is that demand is up by a factor of two or three whereas supply, at 

best has only increased by a factor of 10% and according to some agents may 

either be static or down. Agents considered that the market could easily cope 

with a further 25-30% increase in supply. There was also the perception that 

owner-occupiers were not listing their properties until they saw a suitable 

property to purchase, thereby delaying the house-purchase chain. 

7.4 Market imbalances were seen to be highly variable. For the East Belfast market 

the current imbalance in the owner-occupier sector due to high demand levels 

was contrasted with the private rental sector where supply was considered to be 

high and more than sufficient to meet demand in the market. Under these 

circumstances rental growth was seen to be sluggish. 

. 

47

8. Relationship of East Belfast market to rest of the city 

8.1 The primary relationship is clearly between the East Belfast market and that in 

the South and Southeast of the city. There seemed to be little affinity to housing 

markets in the North or West of Belfast. There was the perception that East 

Belfast was gaining from the overpricing of South Belfast and the 

religious/sectarian divides that still affected certain markets in the North and 

West of the city. All of the agents were in agreement that differences between the 

South and East of the city are rapidly disappearing with growing linkages 

between the two sectors of the city in terms of housing markets. 

8.2 High price levels are seen to be rippling out from the South Belfast market with 

the East Belfast market seen as rapidly catching-up. In this aspect, trends that 

had characterised the South Belfast market over the past 10 years were now 

becoming apparent in East Belfast. 

8.3 There was perceived to be strong purchaser flow from South Belfast to East 

Belfast as buyers, notably first-time purchasers, look towards potentially more 

affordable housing in the east of the city. Several agents considered there to be 

many parallels starting to emerge between the East and South Belfast markets. 

While the South Belfast market is still leading in price terms, East Belfast was 

seen to be increasingly popular and attracting purchaser movement and “not the 

insular area it used to be”. 

8..4 Likewise, in the rental sector a similar pattern was perceived to be taking place, 

with the Ormeau Road market, itself an extension of the Stranmillis/South 

Belfast market, was seen to be coalescing with the Cregagh area. The latter was 

perceived to be more of a rental market than Belmont or Ballyhackamore. 

48

9. Main strengths and perceived problems in the East Belfast housing market 

9.1 All the agents wished to accentuate the positive factors that characterise the East 

Belfast housing market. The main strengths of the East Belfast market are the 

quality of the housing stock, the level of investment activity, the movement of 

purchasers into the local market, a good environment, a good infrastructure and 

well-served by local schools and public services. The current strength of the 

market has meant that areas which previously may not have been fashionable 

such as the lower Ravenhill Road are performing well. It was stressed by several 

agents that East Belfast has also benefited from a lack of sectarian division, with 

the exception of the lower Newtownards Road. This was considered to have 

enhanced the appeal of this part of the city, fuelled local demand and made East 

Belfast an increasingly sought after market. 

9.2 Current market strengths are seen to be first-time buyers and investors with high 

demand levels. Agents referred to the changing character of East Belfast as a 

particular strength of the market in terms of new purchasers entering the market 

bringing more diversity, the scale of redevelopment that is taking place in what 

may be perceived as inner city locations and the transformation that is taking 

place on former estates. These were all seen as highly positive factors. One agent 

saw the potential of flats above shops in unlocking the value that is above 

commercial premises. This was seen to be a new sector of the East Belfast 

market and starting to work. 

9.3 Perceived problems concerned supply-side issues in particular the lack of supply 

and shortage of land in East Belfast. The Titanic Quarter area was seen as largely 

separate to the East Belfast market and not part of the general East Belfast supply 

pipeline. The lack of greenfield sites, with the possible exception of Dundonald, 

and the perception that most of the major brownfield sites have been developed 

raised concerns about level of future supply from the new build sector. 

9.4 A threat or concern is that prices become too high and unsustainable and that 

East Belfast starts to equalise with South Belfast in terms of price levels. Macroeconomic 

factors such as the future movement in interest rates was seen as an 

important factor in maintaining affordability though agents did not anticipate any 

shocks to the system. 

9.5 A perceived threat was how the reform of the rating system would impact upon 

the market. There was a general perception that this would lead to an increase in 

rates in the East Belfast area which may well slow the market notably from the 

investor side and may have more of an impact upon the private rental sector than 

the owner-occupied market. 

49

10. Conclusions 

10.1 The overall conclusion is that the East Belfast housing market in the second 

quarter of 2006 was an extremely buoyant market with price levels escalating 

upwards on the basis of high demand levels. 

10.2 In relation to price levels the following summary points can be drawn: 

• extremely high rates of increase amounting to on average a 20- 

30% increase since the start of 2006 

• terraced houses have experienced the brunt of the price growth 

followed by semi-detached houses 

• the market is considered to be hot across all of East Belfast with 

previously unfashionable locations Sydenham, Bloomfield, 

Cregagh performing strongly 

• traditionally higher price levels of BT 4 still remain 

• first-time buyers are seen to be increasingly stretching 

themselves to purchase in the highly buoyant market 

• unsustainable rates of price growth, though prices are still likely 

to rise due to the level of demand. 

10.3 Concerning demand a number of key factors arose: 

• exceptional rates of demand estimated to be two to three times 

greater than in 2005 (which was not a slack year for the housing 

market) 

• two main purchaser groups were identified namely first-time 

buyers and investors 

• the main housing type in demand was terraced houses 

• demand has been significantly enhanced by an influx of 

purchasers from outside of East Belfast in particular those firsttime 

buyers priced out of the South Belfast market 

• evidence of movement into the East Belfast market from further 

a field and throughout Northern Ireland 

• internally generated demand is also strong with some evidence 

of local purchasers having to look beyond East Belfast 

• co-ownership price thresholds are rapidly being eroded in East 

Belfast and need to be reviewed 

• co-ownership purchasers have difficulty in competing in the 

rapidly rising market and due to additional administrative 

requirements are often outbid 

• trading-up is still a very important component of the market and 

frees up housing for the aggressive first-time buyer and investor 

market. 

10.4 On the supply-side the key issues to emerge were: 

• the level of sales is higher than in the previous year 

• supply of existing property onto the market was good 

50

• property is selling very quickly, frequently within a few days of 

listing, hence the (false) perception that supply is lower 

• those selling are mainly house-holders trading-up through the 

normal process of market activity 

• dissolution of households either through divorce or elderly 

going into care homes is a secondary source within the existing 

market 

• there is evidence of a strong desire to remain within East Belfast 

with most households trading-up wishing to remain in the area 

though some have moved out to either capitalise upon the high 

price levels or being outbid in the market 

• new build supply is predominately within the urban footprint, 

East Belfast is seen to be highly constrained in terms of 

greenfield development 

• there was a concern that most of the key brownfield sites have 

been developed with future supply-side implications 

• planning policy was seen to be contradictory with the need to 

re-open the greenfield/brownfield debate 

• the proposed Titanic Quarter was seen to have produced 

positive spin-offs into the neighbouring Sydenham area but 

apart from this was seen to be a different market and more city 

centre orientated rather than East Belfast 

• the resale of ex-Housing Executive is an important component 

of the existing market with first-time buyer and investor appeal. 

10.5 The buy-to-let market was seen as a new activity and raised a number of 

important issues: 

• impact on the home-ownership market through investors 

bidding-up price levels, out-competing first-time buyers and 

potentially reducing supply coming back on the market 

• the relatively strong presence of investors has meant that the 

supply of private rental accommodation in East Belfast is good 

• demand for private rental accommodation, although a growing 

market with requirements from a number of sources, was seen 

to be still restricted and not on the scale of the South Belfast 

market 

• rental levels were considered to be insufficient to give 

appropriate returns with investors holding for capital growth 

purposes. 

10.6 In summary there are currently market imbalances in the East Belfast market 

with contrasting perspectives between the home-ownership market and the buyto-let 

sector. The former has an imbalance of demand and supply driven by 

excessive rates of demand during the first half of 2006 and a supply-side which 

is inelastic in the response to such demand-side pressures. Hence the rapid 

growth in price levels reported by estate agents. In contrast, for the buy-to-let 

sector the imbalance is in the opposite direction with supply outstripping 

51

demand and keeping rental levels down and below where they should be in the 

market. 

52

Appendix 1 

Northern Ireland Housing Executive: list of companies and individuals 

interviewed 

Company 

UPS 

MCW 

Cowley Property 

Jeff Raine 

BTW Shiells 

Brian McCleary 

The Eric Cairns Partnership 

Templeton and Robinson 

Halifax Property Services 

Pooler Watson 

Watson Property Services 

Person 

Peter Tughan 

Alan McMullan 

David Purce 

Jeff Raine 

Ryan Andrews 

Alan McCleary and Simon Cahill 

David Cairns 

Michael Young 

Simon Wilson 

Christopher Pooler 

Norman Watson 

53

Appendix 2 

Northern Ireland Housing Executive: East Belfast Agents Interview 

1. Brief profile of company. 

• number of years established in East Belfast market 

• number of offices in the east of the city 

• estimate of market share 

2 General perceptions of how the home-ownership market is currently operating in east 


3 Price levels: 

• sustainability of price levels and rate of growth 

• current trends (second quarter 2006) 

• differences by sector 

• differences by location within the east of the city, hot spots in the market 

• affordability concerns 

4 Demand-side issues: 

• who is buying, what type of property is in demand 

• current level of demand in the market 

• source of demand internally generated v demand from outside 

• first-time buyer activity 

• role of co-ownership 

• trading-up within the market 

• role of investors 

5 Supply-side issues 

• what is the level of sales on existing property 

• who is selling and where are they moving 

• level of new build activity 

• brownfield v greenfield development 

• impact of planning policy 

• influence of Titanic Quarter 

• resales of ex-Housing Executive property 

• overall volume of sales compared with same period in previous years 

6 Perceptions of any market imbalances 

7 Impact of buy-to-let/investment market 

• demand for private rented accommodation 

• supply of private rental accommodation 

• impact on home-ownership market 

8 Relationships of east Belfast market to rest of the city 

54

9 Main strengths and perceived threats or future problems in the east Belfast housing 

market 

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East Belfast Sectoral Study - Northern Ireland Housing Executive

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